Prospective analysis of the agricultural trade relations between Peru and India from 2019 to 2023 before the free trade agreement.

Abstract

The primary objective of this research was to analyze the agricultural trade relations between Peru and India from 2019 to 2023. A quantitative methodology was employed, with a descriptive scope and a non-experimental design, using data from SUNAT and INFOTRADE (PROMPERÚ). The results indicate that the trade intensity index (TII) of Peruvian agricultural exports to India declined by 40 % in 2020 and 41 % in 2021 but rebounded in 2022 and 2023 with increases of 132 % and 8 %, respectively, resulting in an average annual growth rate of 15 %. Likewise, agricultural imports from India increased by 55 % in 2020, dropped by 47 % in 2021, grew by 34 % in 2022, and declined by 13 % in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 7 %. Among exported products, blueberries, which had no recorded exports in 2019, reached $ 1,58 million USD in 2023, accounting for 27,39 % of total exports. Powdered tara increased from $ 597 000 USD in 2019 to $ 960 000 USD in 2022 but declined by 79,79 % in 2023. It is concluded that, despite growth in certain products, logistical and tariff barriers continue to constrain bilateral trade. It is recommended to expedite negotiations for a free trade agreement and enhance trade infrastructure.